I'm leaving on saturday morning for Peru with my parents. It will be a long and probably exhausting trip, with hiking in the Andes mountains at 5,000 metres altitude and piranha fishing and anaconda hunting in the Amazon jungle. But it's always nice to broaden your horizon with these trips. I'll be gone until the middle of July. It will be a prolonged break from poker. I guess that's a smart thing to do once in a while. I don't really know if this is the best time, since I'm playing better than ever and I'm not burnt out at all. But at least I won't be sitting on my ass for the next few weeks.
Yesterday night I went over to my friend Odin's house to play poker. As we were waiting for other players, we played some HU SNGs and I beat him in 3 out of 4. That was a nice revenge, since he had been lucking out on me in previous matches. When Joar finally arrived at 2 am we played a 3-man SNG that I won quite easily. After that I owned them in chess as well, so it was a good night for me. :-) When I came home at 6 am I naturally couldn't go to sleep without a little online action first. I played a 30-minute session and won a buy-in at 1/2 just to confirm that WSEX is still rigged in my favor.
When I logged on to WSEX today there was crazy action going on at a 0.5/1 table. A player by the name of 'joelivio' was basically playing every hand and overbetting every flop, and also doing things like shoving his stack into tiny pots and open-raising to $40. He was sitting with over 400 BBs and I had direct position on him. I felt a big win coming. In our first encounter I floated him with 9d8d on a J632 board with 3 spades and showed. After that I had AJ on a QJx9 flop and called him all the way down. Given the situation I think it was the best play, but he got lucky to spike his gutter ball with T8, so I lost a stack there. A couple of hand later I raised UTG with KdQd and he naturally called from the BB. On the turn the board read QTT6 two spades two hearts and he overbet like always. I had nothing to do other than shove, but I ran into his AQ, which was another cooler. Then I re-raised him with AJs and was forced to fold on the river when he overbet-jammed. The very next hand I picked up aces, but had not managed to reload because of the terrible software. I got it all-in against kings, but only won $85 instead of $100 which pissed me off a bit. After that I picked up kings and queens and stacked someone both times. Now I was sitting with a $350 stack with position on joelivio's $250 stack. That was when he decided to leave. :-( Anyways, I bounced back from a quick 2 buy-in deficit to finish up ahead. Crazy swings, considering I was playing only one table for less than an hour.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
A Hand I Played at 1/2
Yesterday I finished the requirements for my Full Tilt bonus. From now on I'm switching my attention completely to WSEX, since I have been winning constantly there. A few Razz games have actually been running as high as 2/4 and 3/6. I've played those with success, although the last two days I've been running like shit. So I decided to put in a grinding session at NLHE. I opened two tables of 0.5/1 and two tables of 1/2 and made $150 worth of profit from this short session. I have yet to play a lot of 1/2, even though my bankroll is large enough that I feel comfortable at those stakes. I played a hand I found quite interesting. Not because I was put in an unfamiliar spot, but because I wanted to mathematically analyze a situation I've been in endless times before and figure out the soundness of the play I made. I did some EV calculations. I have hardly any experience with those, but with my experience in math, it should be easy. Unless you take interest in the mathematics of No Limit poker you can skip the rest of the post.
So the first thing I do when I analyze a hand is to analyze the situation at the table. I had sat at this particular table a handful of orbits earlier. During this time I had been pretty card dead. I had taken down the blinds a couple of times uncontested and had won a nice pot with a strong call on the river. Since I am new to these stakes, most of the players probably didn't know anything about how I played, even though it is a very small site. In my mind I had a tight image, and I thought I had a lot of respect at the table after winning every pot I entered and especially after that call on the river. There was one player - let's call him UTG, since I don't have the hand history - who was sitting with a big stack. Apparently he had stacked SB and was trying to get on SB's nerve by talking a lot of trash. SB looked like he might be tilting slightly. He lost several pots and he also 3-bet a couple of times against position raises. The other three players at the table seemed pretty innocuous about this and the general play was tight and careful.
On to the hand. I was dealt 9c8c on the button and raised to $6 when everyone folded to me. SB made it $21, BB folded and I made the call, because I have a strong hand with good semi-bluffing potential in position against what I perceived to be a wide 3-betting range. Effective stacks were $200. The flop came 6c5d3h and he bet out $31 into the pot of $44. I shoved and he folded. Now this situation is interesting because it is so simplistic in a way. There is not a whole lot of draws I can have on such a dry board. And there is also not a whole lot of hands he can call me with. So I stand to have a decent amount of fold equity. Especially against a wide preflop range.
Let's try to put him on a range of hands. Since I had such a tight image and given how the table was playing I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming that he's re-raising for value most of the time. Let's include 99+, AJ+, KQ and KJs. Let's also assume that he only 3-bets 99 and TT half of the time, KQo half of the time and that he 3-bets a good suited connector once in a while. In this approximation of his range I came to a total of 82 hand combinations, 30 of which were pairs. On this flop I am also assuming for the sake of simplicity that he bets 100% of his range and only calls the shove with his pairs. That is actually quite a realistic assumption, although he might actually fold some of his pairs due to my tight image.
On to the math. We can create a simple formula for figuring out the expected value (EV) of my play:
EV = EV(fold) * x + EV(call) * (1-x)
where 'x' equals the chance that the shove will induce a fold.
EV(fold) is the amount I win every time he folds, which is the amount that is in the pot before I make my move. So his $21 + my $21 + $2 from the BB + $31 that he bet on the flop = $75
EV(call) is the amount I win every time he calls. It can be calculated by multiplying my equity in the pot against his hand range with the total amount of money that's in the pot after we go all-in and subtract the amount of my shove. My equity with the gutshot and backdoor flush draw against 99+ is 22.5 %. The total amount in the pot will be $402 and the amount I shoved for was $179 (effective stacks minus my preflop call). Thus:
EV(call) = 402 * 0.225 - 179 = -88.6
Against the range I estimated, my fold equity is 63 %, since only 37 % of that range is pairs that he will call with. Now let's put x = 0.63 into the equation.
EV = 75 * 0,63 - 88.6 * 0.37
= 14.5
That means that on average my play stands to win $14.50 against the range I put him on in this situation. Let's also add that he needs to fold 54 % of the time for my play to be break even.
In conclusion: I made an aggressive play that stands to show a slight profit against a somewhat wide 3-betting range. If his range is tight and weighted towards high pocket pairs it might have been a losing play. On the other hand, if he is the type of player to cold-call a lot with medium pocket pairs and even slowplay high pairs, my play will show a lot of profit. In general, if his 3-betting range is wider than normal I should be able to make this play. Even if he 3-bets small suited connectors that will connect with that flop, I will have decent equity against those hands. My play will have a positive effect on metagame since I will now have more fear equity at the table. On the other hand, the variance will be rather high because of the thin edge that I'm pushing and I might go on tilt if I get called. That's the negative effect. Since I have a decent bankroll for 1/2 I like my play. If you play on a smaller roll, arguments could be made for folding in such situations. Another approach would be to float in position. The arguments against that is that he will bluff me out on a lot of overcards and he might check-raise me with overpairs. However, I'm risking a lot less to win the pot that way, and it's probably the best option against a passive opponent. Against an aggressive opponent I much prefer the shove on the flop. Since I didn't know quite what to expect from this particular player, I made the move. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that you won't make a huge mistake whatever you do in this spot.
So the first thing I do when I analyze a hand is to analyze the situation at the table. I had sat at this particular table a handful of orbits earlier. During this time I had been pretty card dead. I had taken down the blinds a couple of times uncontested and had won a nice pot with a strong call on the river. Since I am new to these stakes, most of the players probably didn't know anything about how I played, even though it is a very small site. In my mind I had a tight image, and I thought I had a lot of respect at the table after winning every pot I entered and especially after that call on the river. There was one player - let's call him UTG, since I don't have the hand history - who was sitting with a big stack. Apparently he had stacked SB and was trying to get on SB's nerve by talking a lot of trash. SB looked like he might be tilting slightly. He lost several pots and he also 3-bet a couple of times against position raises. The other three players at the table seemed pretty innocuous about this and the general play was tight and careful.
On to the hand. I was dealt 9c8c on the button and raised to $6 when everyone folded to me. SB made it $21, BB folded and I made the call, because I have a strong hand with good semi-bluffing potential in position against what I perceived to be a wide 3-betting range. Effective stacks were $200. The flop came 6c5d3h and he bet out $31 into the pot of $44. I shoved and he folded. Now this situation is interesting because it is so simplistic in a way. There is not a whole lot of draws I can have on such a dry board. And there is also not a whole lot of hands he can call me with. So I stand to have a decent amount of fold equity. Especially against a wide preflop range.
Let's try to put him on a range of hands. Since I had such a tight image and given how the table was playing I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming that he's re-raising for value most of the time. Let's include 99+, AJ+, KQ and KJs. Let's also assume that he only 3-bets 99 and TT half of the time, KQo half of the time and that he 3-bets a good suited connector once in a while. In this approximation of his range I came to a total of 82 hand combinations, 30 of which were pairs. On this flop I am also assuming for the sake of simplicity that he bets 100% of his range and only calls the shove with his pairs. That is actually quite a realistic assumption, although he might actually fold some of his pairs due to my tight image.
On to the math. We can create a simple formula for figuring out the expected value (EV) of my play:
EV = EV(fold) * x + EV(call) * (1-x)
where 'x' equals the chance that the shove will induce a fold.
EV(fold) is the amount I win every time he folds, which is the amount that is in the pot before I make my move. So his $21 + my $21 + $2 from the BB + $31 that he bet on the flop = $75
EV(call) is the amount I win every time he calls. It can be calculated by multiplying my equity in the pot against his hand range with the total amount of money that's in the pot after we go all-in and subtract the amount of my shove. My equity with the gutshot and backdoor flush draw against 99+ is 22.5 %. The total amount in the pot will be $402 and the amount I shoved for was $179 (effective stacks minus my preflop call). Thus:
EV(call) = 402 * 0.225 - 179 = -88.6
Against the range I estimated, my fold equity is 63 %, since only 37 % of that range is pairs that he will call with. Now let's put x = 0.63 into the equation.
EV = 75 * 0,63 - 88.6 * 0.37
= 14.5
That means that on average my play stands to win $14.50 against the range I put him on in this situation. Let's also add that he needs to fold 54 % of the time for my play to be break even.
In conclusion: I made an aggressive play that stands to show a slight profit against a somewhat wide 3-betting range. If his range is tight and weighted towards high pocket pairs it might have been a losing play. On the other hand, if he is the type of player to cold-call a lot with medium pocket pairs and even slowplay high pairs, my play will show a lot of profit. In general, if his 3-betting range is wider than normal I should be able to make this play. Even if he 3-bets small suited connectors that will connect with that flop, I will have decent equity against those hands. My play will have a positive effect on metagame since I will now have more fear equity at the table. On the other hand, the variance will be rather high because of the thin edge that I'm pushing and I might go on tilt if I get called. That's the negative effect. Since I have a decent bankroll for 1/2 I like my play. If you play on a smaller roll, arguments could be made for folding in such situations. Another approach would be to float in position. The arguments against that is that he will bluff me out on a lot of overcards and he might check-raise me with overpairs. However, I'm risking a lot less to win the pot that way, and it's probably the best option against a passive opponent. Against an aggressive opponent I much prefer the shove on the flop. Since I didn't know quite what to expect from this particular player, I made the move. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that you won't make a huge mistake whatever you do in this spot.
Friday, June 13, 2008
The Razz Man
A couple of days ago I came in 4th in the nightly 2K guaranteed Razz tournament on Full Tilt. And guess what, today I won it. Ship the $630! My track record in that game is starting to get pretty good. I've cashed in almost half the Razz tournaments I've ever played! I was also looking good in the nightly 5K guaranteed PL Hold 'Em. But with 15 players left I lost a coin flip that would have given me a huge chip lead. Instead I went out in 15th.
I didn't have time to play any cash on WSEX, which is kinda bad since I should play in as many soft weekend games as possible. But the games are always soft there anyway, and I probably wouldn't have made as much as I did on the tourneys. I almost went to play a live $400 tourney, but decided that my bankroll is way too small for that yet. But it is approaching $6k. I'm a good week's grinding away from being rolled for 2/4 NL, which was my goal for the summer beforehand.
I didn't have time to play any cash on WSEX, which is kinda bad since I should play in as many soft weekend games as possible. But the games are always soft there anyway, and I probably wouldn't have made as much as I did on the tourneys. I almost went to play a live $400 tourney, but decided that my bankroll is way too small for that yet. But it is approaching $6k. I'm a good week's grinding away from being rolled for 2/4 NL, which was my goal for the summer beforehand.
Monday, June 9, 2008
God I Hate Donkaments
I know, I know. I said I wouldn't. But there is this Mini Series of Poker thing going on Full Tilt where all the WSOP events are matched except the buy-in is 1% of the original. It has attracted some big fields, and I felt like I couldn't pass on the great value in the $50 Razz. For some reason I seem to grasp that game and I've done well in tournaments.
Out of the 414 participants, I came in 10th. Obviously a great result on its own, but it just feels like I lost. When we were 16 players left I had a big stack. I had made some great calls with marginal hands and generally played very well, I thought. Then I actually picked up a legitimate hand. On 5th street I held 65432 (a very strong hand for those not familiar with Razz), and had three opponents all-in. Then the biggest of these stacks managed to hit a miracle deuce and made the nuts. If I win that pot I have an absolutely massive chip lead with 13 players left. Instead I went out in 10th for $230. That's right before the final table, where all the big money is. 1st place paid out 5K. I really wanted to go to bed early tonight. Instead, it's 8 am, I just grinded razz for 5 hours and I made $180 profit. I wish I had a shotgun, so I could blow my fucking brains out. Good night!
Edit: Before I go to bed (or rather, before I go to sleep, as I have already been in bed for 8 hours) I must note that this has been a pretty good day all things considered. When I woke up and logged on to Full Tilt, Händel's Hallelujah chorus from "Messiah" was going off in my head. $700 worth of rakeback had arrived. Bankroll up to $5K. Going strong.
Out of the 414 participants, I came in 10th. Obviously a great result on its own, but it just feels like I lost. When we were 16 players left I had a big stack. I had made some great calls with marginal hands and generally played very well, I thought. Then I actually picked up a legitimate hand. On 5th street I held 65432 (a very strong hand for those not familiar with Razz), and had three opponents all-in. Then the biggest of these stacks managed to hit a miracle deuce and made the nuts. If I win that pot I have an absolutely massive chip lead with 13 players left. Instead I went out in 10th for $230. That's right before the final table, where all the big money is. 1st place paid out 5K. I really wanted to go to bed early tonight. Instead, it's 8 am, I just grinded razz for 5 hours and I made $180 profit. I wish I had a shotgun, so I could blow my fucking brains out. Good night!
Edit: Before I go to bed (or rather, before I go to sleep, as I have already been in bed for 8 hours) I must note that this has been a pretty good day all things considered. When I woke up and logged on to Full Tilt, Händel's Hallelujah chorus from "Messiah" was going off in my head. $700 worth of rakeback had arrived. Bankroll up to $5K. Going strong.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
LOL Weekend Donkaments
In the weekends I will often hang out with some friends and donk it up in online tournaments, mainly just for fun. Even though I think I have a big edge in all the tournaments I play, it's probably losing me a lot of money to play them instead of cash games. And it's not even that fun. The big scores are so few and far between that it really gets a bit frustrating when you only play a few of them each week. If you're a high volume donkament player you'll naturally see more success in a shorter time span.
Anyways, I played a lot of tourneys this weekend without cashing for significant amounts. In a couple of minutes there is the "big 5K" on WSEX, which is fine, since it only costs me FPPs. But I think I will cut down on the donkament spendings the next weeks until I get a bigger bankroll. I might play some live tournaments, though.
Now I'm getting ready for a long saturday night grind. That's the best part of the week to be playing, EV-wise. So I've got two large bottles of coke standing next to me and I'm bumping some heavy hip-hop on the headphones. Let's try to build a 10 BI stack! GOGOGO!
Update: I played for three hours straight, which is a lot for me. I'm not one of those guys who can put in a ton of hours. I try to play a couple of hours every day and that's it. The games were fairly good, but not spectacular on a saturday night. I got unlucky in some big pots, but grinded out a $250 profit. Since moving to WSEX half a month ago, I've yet to experience a losing day. Overall, I'm up 2K+. I'll try to play there more once I clear my Full Tilt bonus. Took a shot at 1/2 tonight. The game seemed very soft. Let's hope the action doesn't die out completely.
Anyways, I played a lot of tourneys this weekend without cashing for significant amounts. In a couple of minutes there is the "big 5K" on WSEX, which is fine, since it only costs me FPPs. But I think I will cut down on the donkament spendings the next weeks until I get a bigger bankroll. I might play some live tournaments, though.
Now I'm getting ready for a long saturday night grind. That's the best part of the week to be playing, EV-wise. So I've got two large bottles of coke standing next to me and I'm bumping some heavy hip-hop on the headphones. Let's try to build a 10 BI stack! GOGOGO!
Update: I played for three hours straight, which is a lot for me. I'm not one of those guys who can put in a ton of hours. I try to play a couple of hours every day and that's it. The games were fairly good, but not spectacular on a saturday night. I got unlucky in some big pots, but grinded out a $250 profit. Since moving to WSEX half a month ago, I've yet to experience a losing day. Overall, I'm up 2K+. I'll try to play there more once I clear my Full Tilt bonus. Took a shot at 1/2 tonight. The game seemed very soft. Let's hope the action doesn't die out completely.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Current State
My bankroll is up to $4K atm. I had to withdraw a lot in May to pay off debts and such. Now that all the financial matters are taken care of, I hope to keep my BR continuously growing without having to withdraw again in the coming months so I can play 200NL. I'd say 20 BIs is the minimum you need to take a shot at a new limit (6max, that is).
The last two weeks have been pretty awesome. I am up $1,500 on WSEX (World Poker Exchange) over ~5K hands, playing 100NL. That's where I have most of my BR and will be playing 1/2 now. On Full Tilt I have a lot less money. I'm basically just playing there to collect a bonus. I played a couple of hours of 50NL today. I was mostly just 2- and 3-tabling while watching the EPT Bahamas (god, I'd love to go there in January). I went on a sick heater. At one table I started a grudge match against the player directly to my right when I noticed he was about to crack. Waging open war against the player to your right is usually a good idea unless he's insanely good. The total profit for the session was 9 BIs.
Ship the $450.
The last two weeks have been pretty awesome. I am up $1,500 on WSEX (World Poker Exchange) over ~5K hands, playing 100NL. That's where I have most of my BR and will be playing 1/2 now. On Full Tilt I have a lot less money. I'm basically just playing there to collect a bonus. I played a couple of hours of 50NL today. I was mostly just 2- and 3-tabling while watching the EPT Bahamas (god, I'd love to go there in January). I went on a sick heater. At one table I started a grudge match against the player directly to my right when I noticed he was about to crack. Waging open war against the player to your right is usually a good idea unless he's insanely good. The total profit for the session was 9 BIs.
Ship the $450.
New Blog
Welcome to my new blog!
I just noticed that Patrik Antonius was using this layout in his blog, so I obviously copied it, since he is God.
A little bit about myself: I'm a 23 year old student and poker player from Norway. I specialize in 6-handed No Limit Texas Hold 'Em cash games online. You might know me as icehawk on Full Tilt or icehawk84 on 2+2. I play on other sites as well, but I won't reveal my screen names at the moment. In early 2006 I started playing NLHE online. At first it was just a random hobby, but in August I decided to try to get good at it. Since then, I've made most of my money playing poker. I have by no means gotten rich and I have busted my bankroll several times - most of the time because I had to withdraw money for other purposes.
Hopefully that trend is about to change. In late March this year I started taking poker more seriously. I built a new bankroll starting from only $3(!), moving up quickly through the limits. In April my profit was 3k and in May 5k. I am a believer in good bankroll management as a key to success. This time I am going to protect my bankroll and see how far I really can take it. I think I am ready to become a professional player and make some serious money.
My old blog is still there. Although i realized nobody was reading it and I never made any attempts to get any readers, I still found it useful to keep a diary. I updated it very frequently with stuff that wouldn't have interested anyone unless I was a high stakes pro. Hopefully I will become one as this blog progresses. But I will try to keep it more reader friendly with fewer posts and more interesting content. The goal is to give a view into how it is like to grind your way through the limits in today's tough online games. I like to think that there is someone out there who might find it interesting to read what goes through the mind of a crazy, Scandinavian young gun.
Anyways, GL and see you at the tables!
I just noticed that Patrik Antonius was using this layout in his blog, so I obviously copied it, since he is God.
A little bit about myself: I'm a 23 year old student and poker player from Norway. I specialize in 6-handed No Limit Texas Hold 'Em cash games online. You might know me as icehawk on Full Tilt or icehawk84 on 2+2. I play on other sites as well, but I won't reveal my screen names at the moment. In early 2006 I started playing NLHE online. At first it was just a random hobby, but in August I decided to try to get good at it. Since then, I've made most of my money playing poker. I have by no means gotten rich and I have busted my bankroll several times - most of the time because I had to withdraw money for other purposes.
Hopefully that trend is about to change. In late March this year I started taking poker more seriously. I built a new bankroll starting from only $3(!), moving up quickly through the limits. In April my profit was 3k and in May 5k. I am a believer in good bankroll management as a key to success. This time I am going to protect my bankroll and see how far I really can take it. I think I am ready to become a professional player and make some serious money.
My old blog is still there. Although i realized nobody was reading it and I never made any attempts to get any readers, I still found it useful to keep a diary. I updated it very frequently with stuff that wouldn't have interested anyone unless I was a high stakes pro. Hopefully I will become one as this blog progresses. But I will try to keep it more reader friendly with fewer posts and more interesting content. The goal is to give a view into how it is like to grind your way through the limits in today's tough online games. I like to think that there is someone out there who might find it interesting to read what goes through the mind of a crazy, Scandinavian young gun.
Anyways, GL and see you at the tables!
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